Thursday, March 27, 2008

My odds of ever hitting a nine darter

Pictured : The bad news

My odds of achieving a 9 dart finish in a game of 501X are an absurd 18 million to one.

Using my DartPro data from the last 1,207 legs of 501 I've been able to work it out:

I get a 180 every 300 shots, so an opening score of 180 would be 300 / 1

To follow it up with another 180 I'm assuming the odds would be roughly the same, give or take a few extra nerves when it dawned on me that the 9 darter was "on".

That would leave 141. I only hit finishes as large as this this at a rate of once every 200 games, so that's 200 /1

This gives us the 18 million to one (300 X 300 X 200 = 18,000,000)

I probably play around 70 games per month, which is 840 per year. I can therefore confidently predict that I should finally have my 9 darter in the year 23,437

2 comments:

Kevin said...

I keep hitting them over and over, but then I keep spoiling it by waking up :)

Tommo said...

It was your piece about "Nine Dart Madness in Germany" that got me thinking about this. There'll be no 9 dart madness on my watch :o)